The European angle is narrower than the headlines suggest
The dossier behind this piece is mostly American. The 24-hour trading plans, the prediction-market lawsuits and the new company-KPI contracts all concern US exchanges and US regulators. The one place where European law directly changed behaviour is MiCA, the EU's crypto-asset regulation. Coinbase gave users a three-day deadline and automatically converted non-compliant stablecoins (USDT, PayPal's and a Trump-linked coin) into USDC, telling users not to deposit them after October 30.1 That is a European rule moving a global platform's product within days. We found no comparable European exchange launch of event contracts in our material, so we do not claim one.
What Robinhood's numbers show
Robinhood is the clearest example of where the money is moving. Its checked SEC-filing figures show revenue of $1.865 billion in FY2023, $2.951 billion in FY2024 and $4.473 billion in FY2025.2 That is about 2.4 times the FY2023 level in two years. Net income went from a loss of $541 million in FY2023 to a profit of $1.411 billion in FY2024 and $1.883 billion in FY2025.2 Earnings per share moved from -$0.61 to $1.56 and then $2.05.2
Cash is steadier. It stood at $4.835 billion at the end of FY2023, $4.332 billion at the end of FY2024 and $4.261 billion at the end of FY2025, and reached $5.362 billion in Q2 2026.2 One small seam: two records for cash at 30 September 2025 differ slightly, $4.331 billion against a rounded $4.3 billion. We read this as rounding, not a real conflict, and use the precise figure.2
The Q3 2026 results show the mix changing. Total revenue rose 12% to a record $1.42 billion. Crypto revenue fell 55% year on year to $120 million, while event-contract revenue rose more than sixfold to $173 million. Net income fell 14% to $476 million, and diluted EPS fell 16% to $0.51 against $0.55 expected.3 Via News's reading of these figures: event contracts are now bigger than crypto at this broker, and growth in them did not stop profit from falling. That is our interpretation, not a company statement.
From election bets to company KPIs
On September 30, Cboe announced plans for binary contracts tied to company-specific key performance indicators, expected in October 2026 and subject to regulatory approval. Robinhood would be the first retail broker to offer them.4 Cboe's Steve Quirk said: “Earnings contracts give retail investors another tool to inform their strategies and offer an even more precise way to trade on anticipated company KPIs.”4 For European readers the point is that these are bets on a listed company's own operating figures, a product category EU rules have not been shown in our material to address.
A note on reliability: our measurements show 53% of 6,464 checked claims from the wire source carrying this announcement held up.4 That is a press release, so treat the plans as intentions rather than launched products.
Regulators are fighting over who is in charge
On October 27 the CFTC sued Utah to stop state efforts to shut down CFTC-registered contract markets, and said it has started legal proceedings against nine other states.5 The agency also said it will host a roundtable on December 15 on whether derivatives markets can move to 24/7 trading.6 Nasdaq says the industry's move to a 23-hour trading day is expected on Sunday, December 6, 2026, pending readiness of the US market data feeds and SEC rule changes. Subject to SEC approval, Nasdaq would add a 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. ET session.7
Brazil's election shows why demand exists. Prediction markets expected Bolsonaro to win the October 25 runoff, and he lost. Brazilian firms then bought stablecoins to hedge currency risk, with USDT volume on Mercado Bitcoin up nearly 800% and Bitcoin volume up 865%.8 US Treasury Secretary Bessent separately said stablecoins and digital assets could reinforce dollar dominance. That reads as a policy contrast with MiCA, which just pushed some dollar stablecoins out of Coinbase's European offering.9
The agent layer: who is allowed to trade?
If markets run all night, software will increasingly do the trading. Baselayer, which helps financial institutions verify businesses and assess fraud risk, has raised $35 million to extend its identity technology to AI agents. M13 led the Series A.10 Its Jonathan Awad put the problem this way: “Agents spin up and they spin down. How can you trust this random one-task agent?”10 He also warned that unless agents can show they act for legitimate people or businesses, “agents will just get blocked everywhere.”10 By his account, relationships with financial institutions typically take 12 to 18 months to establish and large merchant partnerships up to 24 months.10
Norwest's Sean Jacobsohn offers a cautionary view on AI in finance: “You don't want AI doing calculations because it is not good at math.”11 He says that when precision matters, AI cannot be relied on.11 Both startup sources are Crunchbase News pieces; our measurements show 49% of 41 checked claims from that source held up, so company claims here need independent confirmation.10,11
What to watch
- Whether the SEC approves Nasdaq's overnight session before the expected December 6 date.7
- The CFTC's December 15 roundtable on 24/7 derivatives.6
- Whether Cboe's KPI contracts receive regulatory approval, and whether any EU venue or regulator responds.4
- Whether Robinhood's event-contract revenue keeps growing against falling crypto revenue in the next quarter.3
