The European angle is narrower than the headline trend
Most of the news behind this piece is American. The rule changes, the lawsuits and the product launches all sit with US regulators and US brokers. The dossier has one clear European regulatory marker. Coinbase set a three-day deadline under MiCA, the EU's crypto-asset rules. It converts non-compliant stablecoins (USDT, PayPal's and a Trump-linked coin) to USDC automatically and told users not to deposit them after October 30.1 The dossier contains no data on EU-listed firms or EU rulemaking on event contracts or 24-hour trading. We do not claim any. For European investors the story is less about local rules than about where US-led market structure is heading. That matters because Robinhood-style products tend to reach European screens eventually.
Event contracts are already a real line of business
An event contract is a bet on whether something happens, such as a company hitting a target number. It pays out a fixed amount if it does. In its third-quarter report, Robinhood said event-contract revenue rose more than sixfold to $173M. Crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier to $120M. Total revenue rose 12% to a record $1.42B. Net income fell 14% to $476M, and diluted EPS fell 16% to $0.51 versus $0.55.2 By our arithmetic, event contracts were roughly 12% of that quarter's revenue, from a standing start. Crypto, once the growth story, now brings in less than they do.
The product range is widening. Cboe announced on September 30, 2026 that it plans binary contracts tied to company-specific KPIs. Products tied to 23 companies are expected in October, subject to regulatory approval. Robinhood would be the first retail broker to offer them.3 Cboe's Steve Quirk said: "Earnings contracts give retail investors another tool to inform their strategies and offer an even more precise way to trade on anticipated company KPIs."3 That is the exchange's own framing. A company's quarterly KPI will soon be something you can bet on as well as read about.
The dossier also shows what these markets can get wrong. Brazil held its presidential runoff on October 25. Bolsonaro, whom prediction markets expected to win, lost. Brazilian firms bought stablecoins to hedge currency risk, and USDT volume on Mercado Bitcoin rose nearly 800%.4 A crowd-priced forecast is a probability, not a result. Sequoia Capital's investment in Kalshi, an event-contract venue, shows that institutional money is behind the category.5
Robinhood's checked numbers: from loss to profit
The company's SEC filings, which we have verified, show how fast it has changed. Revenue was $1.865B in FY2023, $2.951B in FY2024 and $4.473B in FY2025. That is more than double in two years.6 Net income swung from a loss of $541M in FY2023 to profits of $1.411B in FY2024 and $1.883B in FY2025.6 EPS moved from -$0.61 to $1.56 to $2.05.6 Stockholders' equity was $6.696B in FY2023 and $7.972B in FY2024.6
Cash flow was less smooth. Operating cash flow was $1.181B in FY2023, negative $157M in FY2024 and $1.638B in FY2025.6 A profitable year does not guarantee a steady one. R&D spending stayed in a narrow band of $349M, $323M and $355M.6
Cash on the balance sheet has been steady. It was $4.835B at the end of FY2023, $4.332B in FY2024 and $4.261B in FY2025. It stood at $5.012B in Q1 2026 and $5.362B in Q2 2026.6 Our sources disagree slightly on one point. For September 30, 2025, one record gives cash of $4.331B and another gives $4.3B. This is a rounding gap of about $31M. We use the precise SEC-sourced figure.6
Regulators: the clock is running, and the states are pushing back
Nasdaq says the move to a 23-hour trading day is expected on Sunday, December 6, 2026. That is pending SIP readiness and SEC rule changes. If approved, Nasdaq would add a 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. ET session.7 The CFTC will hold an industry roundtable on December 15 on whether derivatives markets can move to 24/7 trading.8 Both are still proposals. Neither is settled.
The fight over event contracts is also unresolved. On October 27, the CFTC sued Utah to stop state efforts to shut down CFTC-registered contract markets under state law. It said it has started legal proceedings against nine other states.9 Who regulates these products, federal or state authorities, is therefore being decided in court. Treasury Secretary Bessent said stablecoins and digital assets could reinforce dollar dominance, and that Treasury could coordinate with the SEC and CFTC on crypto rules.10 For a European reader, this is the counterpoint to MiCA. The EU has written a single rulebook for stablecoins, and the US is still deciding who writes its own.
The AI-agent layer: trust before payments
The third strand is agents that act for people and firms. Baselayer, which helps financial institutions verify businesses and assess fraud risk, has raised $35M in a Series A led by M13, with Picus Capital taking part. It plans to extend its identity technology to AI agents.11 Its Jonathan Awad put the problem this way: "Agents spin up and they spin down. How can you trust this random one-task agent?"11 He also warned that unless agents can show they act for legitimate people or businesses, "agents will just get blocked everywhere."11 He said relationships with financial institutions typically take 12 to 18 months to establish, and large merchant partnerships up to 24 months.11
Caution comes from investors too. Norwest's Sean Jacobsohn said: "You don't want AI doing calculations because it is not good at math. There are certain workflows it can handle where it doesn't produce precise numbers. But when you need precision, accuracy and calculations, you can't rely on AI for that."12 That sits awkwardly beside the pitch for agent-run finance. Identity can be verified, but a wrong calculation inside an always-on market could cost real money.
A note on source reliability
Not every source here is equal. Our measured check found 53% of 6,322 claims from the press-release feed behind the Cboe item held up.3 For the Crunchbase News material, 49% of 41 checked claims held up.11 That is why we lean on SEC-sourced numbers for Robinhood and attribute the rest to named speakers. The Crunchbase and CB Insights pieces carry no confirmed publication dates in our records.
What to watch
- Whether Cboe's KPI contracts launch in October as planned, since approval was still pending.3
- The SEC decision on Nasdaq's 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. ET session, and the December 6 target.7
- The CFTC's December 15 roundtable on 24/7 derivatives.8
- The outcome of the CFTC's Utah case and the nine other state proceedings.9
- Whether event contracts keep growing as a share of Robinhood's revenue while crypto falls.2
