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Source document· February 26, 2026

Ibotta outlines Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $78M-$82M with LiveLift driving transformation

View original at seekingalpha.com
Ibotta outlines Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $78M-$82M with LiveLift driving transformation Earnings Call Insights: Ibotta, Inc…
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  • Broad-based sequential progress in year-over-year redemption revenue trends throughout Q4, with LiveLift revenue better than projected and SNAP program contributing incremental revenue

    80% confidence
  • LiveLift is a TAM expander with ability to provide ongoing, actionable metrics

    80% confidence
  • Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA are both above the top end of the guidance range, representing an improvement in year-over-year revenue trends compared to Q3

    80% confidence
  • Outperformance attributed to improved execution, core product strengthening, and expansion of LiveLift

    80% confidence
  • LiveLift allows clients to see projected incremental sales and cost per incremental dollar at various intervals during campaigns, enabling better optimization

    80% confidence
  • Q1 2026 revenue expected in range of $78 million to $82 million, representing 5% year-over-year decline at midpoint

    80% confidence
  • LiveLift is the most sophisticated capability and represents where the industry is heading

    80% confidence
  • More offers, better quality offers, and longer duration on network drive more redemptions per redeemer

    80% confidence
  • Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA were 7% and 31% above the midpoint of Q3 guidance respectively

    80% confidence
  • Companies added additional budget to same brands and added additional brands into the program

    80% confidence
  • Third-party redeemers grew by almost 3.5 million in Q4, with about one-third from existing publishers

    80% confidence
  • Third-party redeemer growth attributed to new publisher partnerships and innovations in in-store and online awareness

    80% confidence
  • Clients can purchase sales lift studies just as they would for other forms of digital media through partnerships with Circana and ABCS Insights

    80% confidence
  • Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA expected in range of $6 million to $8 million, representing about 9% adjusted EBITDA margin at midpoint

    80% confidence
  • Stock-based compensation expense expected to be approximately $10 million higher than 2025

    80% confidence
  • Average campaign size in LiveLift from companies piloting it is substantially larger than average campaign size in core Ibotta offering from same companies

    80% confidence
  • Low single-digit sequential revenue growth expected in Q2 versus Q1, and slight year-over-year revenue growth expected in Q3

    80% confidence
  • There's real emphasis on value among clients and Ibotta is well positioned in terms of the macro environment

    80% confidence
What we know · the intelligence behind this page
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What we're seeing
AI Funding Surge: Capital Floods Fintech, Foundation Models, and Autonomous Systems
A concentrated burst of AI-linked funding on 2026-08-28 pushed well over $1.5B into companies spanning fraud/identity fintech (Socure, which also acquired Fravity), foundation models (Stability AI), AI agents and enterprise tooling (Instinct, Generalist AI, Emerald AI, Owner), and AI-adjacent autonomous/aerospace ventures (Gatik, Regent Craft). The breadth and simultaneity of these rounds signal that investor appetite for AI is not concentrated in a single vertical but is broadening into applied and infrastructure-adjacent domains, with consolidation (Socure-Fravity) beginning alongside fresh capital formation.
Our read on the data ›
Signals we're tracking
EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
The same metric (eps) for the same entity (Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC) reported for the identical fiscal period (Q1 2026) and observation date (2026-03-31) has two conflicting values: 3.43 USD_per_share vs 3.08 USD. This is not a temporal change — both observations claim to measure the same point in time. The ~10% discrepancy (0.35 USD difference) is material for a financial metric.
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Ibotta outlines Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $78M-$82M with LiveLift driving transformation — Source | Via News | ViaNews EU