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Source document· January 8, 2026

Shell fourth quarter 2025 update note

View original at finance.yahoo.com
Shell fourth quarter 2025 update note The following is an update to the fourth quarter 2025 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the fourth quarter…
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  • Following swap of Canadian oil sands, there will be a reduction in Chemicals and Products Adjusted Earnings with a corresponding reduction in non-controlling interest for 50% at a Shell Group level

    80% confidence
  • Q4'25 Working Capital movements is expected to include the typical approximately $1.2 billion payment of German Mineral Oil Taxes

    80% confidence
  • Following the formation of the incorporated Adura JV (UK Upstream), future cash flows will be in the form of dividends, with timing determined by the JV

    80% confidence
  • Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q3'25 for Chemicals and Products

    80% confidence
  • CFFO excluding working capital is expected to include an approximately $1.5 billion outflow related to timing of payments of emissions certificates relating to the German BEHG

    80% confidence
  • Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be below Q4'24, reflecting a non-cash deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture

    80% confidence
  • The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be a significant loss, reflecting a non-cash deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture

    80% confidence
  • The Chemicals & Products segment adjusted earnings is expected to be below break-even in Q4'25

    80% confidence
  • Trading & Optimisation is expected to be in line with Q3'25 for Integrated Gas segment

    80% confidence
  • No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments

    80% confidence
  • The taxation charge across segments includes the annual non-cash reassessment of deferred tax assets

    80% confidence
  • The deferred tax impact on Joint Ventures and Associates in Marketing and Chemicals is expected to be approximately $0.3 billion split roughly equally

    80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source

Shell plc · depreciation upstream2.4-3.0 billion_USD
Shell plc · adjusted earnings corporate-0.6 to -0.4 billion_USD
Shell plc · adjusted earnings renewables-0.2 to 0.2 billion_USD
Shell plc · cffo tax paid2.3-3.1 billion_USD
Shell plc · chemicals margin140 USD_per_tonne
Shell plc · chemicals utilisation75-79 percent
Shell plc · depreciation chemicals and products0.7-0.9 billion_USD
Shell plc · depreciation integrated gas1.4-1.8 billion_USD
Shell plc · depreciation marketing0.5-0.7 billion_USD
Shell plc · lng liquefaction volumes7.5-7.9 million_tonnes
Shell plc · oil sands production canada20 kboe_per_day
Shell plc · production integrated gas930-970 kboe_per_day
Shell plc · production upstream1840-1940 kboe_per_day
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What we're seeing
AI Funding Surge: Capital Floods Fintech, Foundation Models, and Autonomous Systems
A concentrated burst of AI-linked funding on 2026-08-28 pushed well over $1.5B into companies spanning fraud/identity fintech (Socure, which also acquired Fravity), foundation models (Stability AI), AI agents and enterprise tooling (Instinct, Generalist AI, Emerald AI, Owner), and AI-adjacent autonomous/aerospace ventures (Gatik, Regent Craft). The breadth and simultaneity of these rounds signal that investor appetite for AI is not concentrated in a single vertical but is broadening into applied and infrastructure-adjacent domains, with consolidation (Socure-Fravity) beginning alongside fresh capital formation.
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EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
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Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
The same metric (eps) for the same entity (Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC) reported for the identical fiscal period (Q1 2026) and observation date (2026-03-31) has two conflicting values: 3.43 USD_per_share vs 3.08 USD. This is not a temporal change — both observations claim to measure the same point in time. The ~10% discrepancy (0.35 USD difference) is material for a financial metric.
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Shell fourth quarter 2025 update note — Source | Via News | ViaNews EU