Here’s what investors want even more than a Fed interest-rate cut this week

What we drew from this source

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• Stock-market volatility could come soon after the next Fed chair takes office midyear, as the market starts to get used to the tone and direction of a new chair

  80% confidence

• The market doesn't need a cut and can be just fine without a cut for the early part of 2026

  80% confidence

• Investors would be better served by tuning out some of the noise from Fed announcements

  80% confidence

• Expects Jerome Powell to tread carefully around the topic of the ongoing investigation during his press conference

  80% confidence

• Earnings growth for the rest of the S&P 500 will catch up to the Magnificent Seven stocks in 2026

  80% confidence

• Investors are optimistic the broadening out in the market will continue, and for other sectors to pull some weight as far as returns go

  80% confidence

• Expectations for more rate cuts later in the year aren't what's driving markets right now

  80% confidence

• Lower rates are a tailwind, but not a precondition for markets to go higher

  80% confidence

• The most dangerous time to trade is between 2 and 2:30 p.m. Eastern time on Fed days

  80% confidence

• The market has been trained to listen closely and hang on every word of Jerome Powell

  80% confidence

• Investors are 97% certain that the Fed will hold rates where they are at the January 2026 meeting

  80% confidence

• There are other groups that provide economic projections that are just as accurate as the Fed, but investors give extra weight to the central bank because of the Fed's authority

  80% confidence

• GDP growth could be better than expected, and valuations could expand modestly if profit margins surprise to the upside

  80% confidence

• There is little reason for the Fed to cut rates right now, especially after cuts at each of the last three meetings

  80% confidence