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Source document· January 19, 2026

Andreessen Horowitz Makes a $3 Billion Bet Against the AI Bubble

View original at finance.yahoo.com
Andreessen Horowitz Makes a $3 Billion Bet Against the AI Bubble Photographer: Manuel Orbegozo/Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- An artificial intelligence startup that helps developers write and debug code is now worth nearly as much as United Airlines…
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  • Private valuations are crazy

    80% confidence

  • Mira Murati created ChatGPT

    80% confidence

  • He recruited Matt Bornstein by saying to come win deals instead of losing deals

    80% confidence

  • The infrastructure fund is one of the best funds he's ever seen

    80% confidence

  • He grew up very poor as a weird European family in a western town

    80% confidence

  • Fire drills and battles at startups is what she loves about startups

    80% confidence

  • Martin Casado has completely replaced him as infrastructure expert

    80% confidence

  • There's going to be a bunch of companies that don't work, with fewer winners than people assume but they are much larger than people assume

    80% confidence

  • A lot of venture capitalists were hired from investment banking, but Martin didn't care about conventional wisdom or background when building his team

    80% confidence

  • a16z talked themselves out of investing in neocloud providers stupidly

    80% confidence

  • It's too early to make any judgments about the fund's performance, which is usually assessed on a decade-long time horizon

    80% confidence

  • She was impressed that Martin Casado actually understood world models

    80% confidence

  • a16z invests much before crazy valuations typically

    80% confidence

  • People joke that she works Martin really hard

    80% confidence

  • Some of the most important companies of tomorrow will be infrastructure companies

    80% confidence

  • Not worried about an AI bubble because the technology is real and demand is real

    80% confidence

  • Sometimes you can be absolutely right and not rich

    80% confidence

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What we know · the intelligence behind this page
Live from the substrate
What we're seeing
Q4 2026 Clinical Catalyst Season: Big-Pharma Data Flow, Regulatory Milestones, and a Thin AI-Drug Fringe
October 2026 conferences (EASD, IGCS, NACFC, HFSA) are producing a dense run of late-stage readouts from Novo Nordisk, Lilly, Roche, Bayer, Vertex and Galderma. Regulatory milestones are scheduled behind them: the ivonescimab BLA PDUFA date on 2026-11-14, FDA acceptance of Roche's vamikibart BLA, and Scholar Rock's EMA resubmission. The AI-and-finance angle is peripheral. It consists of the AI-designed drug Rentosertib and QAIAx, a speculative microcap whose trial claims (the QIII pilot, anticipated 2027-01-01, and a patent update) are forecasts and filings rather than data, so they warrant skepticism.
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Signals we're tracking
EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
We flag conflicts openly ›
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