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Source document· May 24, 2026

Social Security's 2027 COLA Could Be the Biggest Since 2023

View original at nasdaq.com
Social Security's 2027 COLA Could Be the Biggest Since 2023 Key Points Recent developments have pushed expectations for the 2027 COLA significantly higher…
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  • The 2027 Social Security COLA is now projected at 4.2%, up from prior expectations of 3.2%

    60% confidence
  • The 2027 Social Security COLA is now expected to come in at 3.9%, up from a prior forecast of 2.8%

    60% confidence
  • 62% of retirees say Social Security is a major source of revenue, the highest level recorded in the poll's 25-year history

    60% confidence
  • The CPI-W rose 3.9% year over year in April, driven by the ongoing war in Iran pushing oil prices higher

    60% confidence
  • Business leaders expect inflation to average 3.7% over the next 12 months, based on the Cleveland Fed's quarterly executive survey

    60% confidence
  • The 2027 COLA could be the highest since the 8.7% adjustment in 2023 and would rank as the third-largest COLA since 2009

    60% confidence
  • The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the higher oil prices will climb, with a knock-on effect on overall inflation rates

    60% confidence
  • CPI-U is forecast to climb 4.2% year over year

    60% confidence
  • Prices for shelter, medical services, and food all increased about 3.2% year over year, exceeding the 2.8% COLA most beneficiaries received

    60% confidence

Data points we hold from this source

Social Security Administration · market share62 percent_retirees_citing_as_major_income_source
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AI Funding Surge: Capital Floods Fintech, Foundation Models, and Autonomous Systems
A concentrated burst of AI-linked funding on 2026-08-28 pushed well over $1.5B into companies spanning fraud/identity fintech (Socure, which also acquired Fravity), foundation models (Stability AI), AI agents and enterprise tooling (Instinct, Generalist AI, Emerald AI, Owner), and AI-adjacent autonomous/aerospace ventures (Gatik, Regent Craft). The breadth and simultaneity of these rounds signal that investor appetite for AI is not concentrated in a single vertical but is broadening into applied and infrastructure-adjacent domains, with consolidation (Socure-Fravity) beginning alongside fresh capital formation.
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EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
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Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
The same metric (eps) for the same entity (Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC) reported for the identical fiscal period (Q1 2026) and observation date (2026-03-31) has two conflicting values: 3.43 USD_per_share vs 3.08 USD. This is not a temporal change — both observations claim to measure the same point in time. The ~10% discrepancy (0.35 USD difference) is material for a financial metric.
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