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Source document· November 28, 2025

Shopify (SHOP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

View original at nasdaq.com
Shopify (SHOP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Image source: The Motley Fool. Date Nov. 4, 2025 at 12:16 p.m. ET Call participants President — Harley FinkelsteinChief Financial Officer — Jeff HoffmeisterDirector, Investor Relations — Carrie Gillard Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst?…
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  • Sometimes that means me spending the weekend on calls... Tobi jumping in to explain a new feature... 8,100 people at Shopify who're relentlessly merchant-obsessed

    80% confidence
  • 64% of shoppers likely to use AI for BFCM purchases according to consumer survey

    80% confidence
  • 2025 merchant cohort outpacing previous years' cohorts at same age

    80% confidence
  • Every 26 seconds, a new entrepreneur makes their first sale on Shopify

    80% confidence
  • Full year 2025 FCF margin expected similar to 2024

    80% confidence
  • Q4 2025 revenue growth expected in mid to high 20% range

    80% confidence
  • Merchants with annual GMV over $25M grew faster in Q3 than smaller merchants

    80% confidence
  • AI is not just a feature at Shopify. It is central to our engine that powers everything we build

    80% confidence
  • Q4 2025 operating expenses expected to be 30-31% of revenue

    80% confidence
  • Merchants raised prices since April tariffs, with pricing increases slightly lower than Q2 trends

    80% confidence
  • Our merchants have consistently delivered over 20% GMV growth for 9 consecutive quarters

    80% confidence
  • Q4 2025 free cash flow margin expected slightly above Q3 levels

    80% confidence
  • Q4 2025 gross profit growth expected in low to mid 20% range

    80% confidence
  • Transaction and loan losses are elevated due to Payments testing and higher capital loss rate but are improving

    80% confidence
What we know · the intelligence behind this page
Live from the substrate
What we're seeing
AI Funding Surge: Capital Floods Fintech, Foundation Models, and Autonomous Systems
A concentrated burst of AI-linked funding on 2026-08-28 pushed well over $1.5B into companies spanning fraud/identity fintech (Socure, which also acquired Fravity), foundation models (Stability AI), AI agents and enterprise tooling (Instinct, Generalist AI, Emerald AI, Owner), and AI-adjacent autonomous/aerospace ventures (Gatik, Regent Craft). The breadth and simultaneity of these rounds signal that investor appetite for AI is not concentrated in a single vertical but is broadening into applied and infrastructure-adjacent domains, with consolidation (Socure-Fravity) beginning alongside fresh capital formation.
Our read on the data ›
Signals we're tracking
EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
The same metric (eps) for the same entity (Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC) reported for the identical fiscal period (Q1 2026) and observation date (2026-03-31) has two conflicting values: 3.43 USD_per_share vs 3.08 USD. This is not a temporal change — both observations claim to measure the same point in time. The ~10% discrepancy (0.35 USD difference) is material for a financial metric.
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Shopify (SHOP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript — Source | Via News | ViaNews EU