How Likely Is It That the Stock Market Crashes Under President Donald Trump in 2026? 3 Historically Accurate Correlations Weigh In.

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• Out of 27 bear markets analyzed, only eight endured for at least one year, with average S&P 500 bear market decline finding its bottom in just 286 calendar days

  80% confidence

• When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and -2%, in every case

  80% confidence

• S&P 500 experiences larger peak-to-trough corrections during midterm years, with average decline since 1950 standing at 17.5%

  80% confidence

• Since 1950, off the midterm year lows, stocks have never been lower a year later and are up more than 30% on average

  80% confidence

• 14 out of 27 S&P 500 bull markets have lasted longer than the lengthiest bear market (630 calendar days), with average bull market persisting for 1,011 calendar days from September 1929 to June 2023

  80% confidence

• Long-term outlook for the stock market remains as rosy as ever, regardless of what headwinds are thrown Wall Street's way

  80% confidence

• Three historically accurate correlations point to growing possibility of a steep correction, if not a stock market crash, under Trump in 2026

  80% confidence

• All 106 rolling 20-year periods from 1900 through 2005 would have produced a positive annualized total return for S&P 500

  80% confidence

• Stock Advisor's total average return is 969%, compared to 196% for the S&P 500

  80% confidence