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Source document· February 4, 2026

Broader Market Falls as Chipmakers and AI Stocks Tumble

View original at nasdaq.com
Broader Market Falls as Chipmakers and AI Stocks Tumble The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed down -0.51%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.53%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.77%…
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  • Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.44

    80% confidence
  • US companies added 22,000 jobs in January, below expectations of 45,000

    80% confidence
  • Treasury anticipates keeping auction sizes unchanged for nominal notes, bonds, and floating-rate notes for at least the next several quarters

    80% confidence
  • Q1 adjusted EBITDA forecast of $2.37 to $2.47

    80% confidence
  • January ISM services index was unchanged at 53.8, stronger than expectations of decline to 53.5

    80% confidence
  • 2026 adjusted EPS forecast of $2.90 to $3.00

    80% confidence
  • Q1 sales forecast of $9.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million

    80% confidence
  • Q4 revenue of $19.29 billion

    80% confidence
  • Full-year adjusted EPS forecast of $3.43 to $3.49

    80% confidence
  • Next week's quarterly refunding will total $125 billion in T-notes and T-bonds sales

    80% confidence
  • Q3 net sales forecast of at least $12.30 billion

    80% confidence
  • S&P earnings growth expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth

    80% confidence
  • Full-year revenue forecast of $80 billion to $83 billion

    80% confidence
  • Q1 net sales of $5.80 billion

    80% confidence
  • Q4 revenue of $9.87 billion

    80% confidence
  • BetMGM joint venture had $2.8 billion in net revenue for fiscal year 2025, up +33% y/y

    80% confidence
  • Q1 revenue of $85.93 billion

    80% confidence
  • Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings expected to increase by +4.6%

    80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source

Federal Reserve · 10 year treasury yield4.274 percent
What we know · the intelligence behind this page
Live from the substrate
What we're seeing
Q4 2026 Biopharma Catalyst Cluster: Late-Stage Readouts and Regulatory Milestones
October 2026 brings a dense run of Phase 3 wins (ALOFT-IPF, RESTORE-3), new data presentations (Roche, Bayer, Lilly, Vertex, Galderma) and regulatory steps (FDA acceptance of Roche's vamikibart BLA, Scholar Rock's EMA resubmission). The next big catalyst is the ivonescimab FDA PDUFA date on 2026-11-14. Obesity combination studies (REDEFINE 4, TOGETHER-PsO) and the 2027 Maritime-1 completion point to more catalysts ahead. QAIAx's speculative AI-linked trial claims (the QIII pilot, targeted for 2027) are an unrelated micro-cap sideshow with weak evidence, and have little in common with the large-cap pipeline news.
Our read on the data ›
Signals we're tracking
EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
We flag conflicts openly ›
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