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Source document· January 26, 2026

UPS (UPS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

View original at nasdaq.com
UPS (UPS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Image source: The Motley Fool. DATE Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET CALL PARTICIPANTS Chief Executive Officer — Carol TomeChief Financial Officer — Brian DykesPresident, U.S…
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  • UPS ultimate target is 400 facilities partially or fully automated with 200 facilities closed

    80% confidence
  • 95% of small package customers expect to maintain current shipping models despite tariffs

    80% confidence
  • U.S. ADV expected down approximately 9% in Q2 2025

    80% confidence
  • The only certainty is that UPS doesn't know which scenario will play out for full-year outlook

    80% confidence
  • Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and other matters led to a drop in consumer confidence and muted demand in February-March 2025

    80% confidence
  • U.S. Domestic operating margin expected up approximately 30 bps to approximately 9.3% in Q2 2025

    80% confidence
  • UPS has built in chaos costs to manage volume and maintain service during Q2 facility closures, impacting margin improvement

    80% confidence
  • The world hasn't faced such enormous potential impacts to trade in more than 100 years

    80% confidence
  • China-to-rest-of-world volume expected up 40% in Q2 2025

    80% confidence
  • Supply Chain Solutions revenue expected down approximately $500M in Q2 2025 due to Coyote divestiture

    80% confidence
  • International revenue expected down approximately 2% in Q2 2025

    80% confidence
  • Many UPS SMB customers are 100% single-sourced from China, causing uncertainty due to 145% tariff announcement

    80% confidence
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What we're seeing
AI Capital Surge Meets Investor Caution: Record Funding Rounds and Government Contracts Amid Valuation Skepticism
A single-week cluster of large AI/fintech funding rounds (Socure, Stability AI, Emerald AI, Generalist AI, Instinct, Gatik, Regent Craft) shows venture capital still pouring into AI infrastructure, identity, and autonomy plays, while Palantir's Army TITAN contract win coincided with a 6% stock drop — signaling that even flagship AI-defense revenue isn't immune to market reassessment of AI valuations. Efficiency-focused innovations like Multiverse Computing's model compression suggest the sector is also pivoting toward cost/inference economics as capital intensity draws scrutiny.
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EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
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Where sources disagree
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
The same metric (eps) for the same entity (Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC) reported for the identical fiscal period (Q1 2026) and observation date (2026-03-31) has two conflicting values: 3.43 USD_per_share vs 3.08 USD. This is not a temporal change — both observations claim to measure the same point in time. The ~10% discrepancy (0.35 USD difference) is material for a financial metric.
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UPS (UPS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript — Source | Via News | ViaNews EU