Top oil and energy stocks to watch as crude swings wildly amid Iran war
View original at uk.finance.yahoo.comTop oil and energy stocks to watch as crude swings wildly amid Iran war The war has heightened fears of disruption to global oil (BZ=F, CL=F) supplies, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, widely regarded as the world’s most important oil chokepoint…
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Historical analogies are complicated by the much lower sensitivity to commodity prices of the global economy today than in the 1970s as we have shifted from a manufacturing-focused to a knowledge-based economy
60% confidenceOil prices may be vulnerable to a short-term pullback if shipping routes stabilise
60% confidenceWhen oil and gas prices fall, they're not always passed on to consumers
60% confidenceErratic energy prices are keeping investors on edge as the war in Iran rages with no clear end in sight
60% confidenceSustained high energy prices may trigger reflationary pressures that weigh on a global economy already facing tariff headwinds
60% confidenceThe war with Iran would end very soon
60% confidenceEventually - even if the war persists - energy prices will likely come down. But during this period, high energy prices will revive inflation globally and weigh notably on growth
60% confidenceThe war in Iran was a little excursion that had succeeded much faster than we thought
60% confidenceOil prices will reach a peak at some point - maybe they already have, maybe there's more to come - but they are likely to fluctuate at elevated levels for weeks, perhaps months
60% confidenceThe longer this goes on, the more exponential the damage becomes in a domino effect
60% confidenceDeath, Fire and Fury will reign upon them - But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!
60% confidenceThere's fresh concern about chaos in the market given how seriously production is being disrupted
60% confidenceMiddle East situation is starting to look like potential combination of 1973 post-Yom Kippur War oil shock, 2022 Russia-Ukraine War commodity shock, and 2020-21 Covid supply chain shock
60% confidenceSupply disruption tailwind could ultimately turn into a demand destruction headwind
60% confidenceUK North Sea producers expected to continue their recent share price rallies
60% confidenceUS has signalled a four-to-five-week campaign
60% confidenceEven if major hostilities subside, prospect of ongoing low-level Iranian drone attacks on energy infrastructure could prolong market instability into next year
60% confidenceAdministration is looking to keep the oil prices down
60% confidenceMarkets are pricing in a less benign outcome than they hoped for a week ago, even if expectation remains that conflict could be relatively short-lived - similar to Gulf War in 1990
60% confidenceOil prices went artificially up because of this excursion
60% confidenceOil prices remain elevated as markets grapple with prospect of prolonged war and lingering supply disruptions
60% confidenceThe shifting geopolitical landscape strengthens UK producers' case for changes in government policy to support domestic energy supplies
60% confidenceHigher long term oil prices generally support greater investment in subsea developments, which form the core of TechnipFMC's business
60% confidenceHigher crude prices are expected to enhance profitability for ExxonMobil's upstream business
60% confidenceReset in equity markets following 2022 Ukraine invasion was more a reflection of higher gas prices and rising interest rates than the surge in oil
60% confidenceChevron's robust cash flow generation would further support its shareholder return program through dividends and share buybacks
60% confidenceIran would not allow one litre of oil to be exported from the region if US and Israeli attacks continued
60% confidenceNearly 60% of Exxon's LNG business is concentrated in the Middle East
60% confidenceWe particularly like Occidental's vast oil and gas holdings in the United States, as well as its leadership in carbon-capture initiatives
60% confidenceTechnipFMC tends to benefit when oil companies increase capital spending on offshore and subsea projects, something that typically occurs when crude prices rise
60% confidence
Cited in these Via News reports
- Strait of Hormuz Blockade Cuts 20M Barrels Daily, Largest Oil Disruption on Record →
- Strait of Hormuz Blockade Cuts 20M Barrels Daily, Largest Oil Shock on Record →
- Strait of Hormuz Blockade Halts 20M Barrels Daily, One-Fifth of Global Oil Supply →
- Strait of Hormuz Blockade Removes 20M Barrels Daily, Largest Oil Disruption on Record →