Europe Gauges Fallout From Trump’s Year of Trade Chaos

What we drew from this source

The claims Via News extracted from this document. We point to the source; we don't replace it.

• Still-elevated uncertainty, higher effective tariffs, a stronger euro and increased global competition are expected to hold back growth

  80% confidence

• The European Commission is likely to raise the 2025 GDP estimate this time around

  80% confidence

• Uncertainty is shaving about 0.5 percentage point off France's expansion, with domestic political and budget turbulence accounting for at least 0.2 point of that

  80% confidence

• The economy may experience another period of soft business investment and weak external demand as a result of elevated uncertainty and fewer purchases from the other side of the Atlantic

  80% confidence

• The European Central Bank anticipated 1% growth for 2026 in its September forecasting round

  80% confidence

• Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo likely to signal room for further cuts in the coming year

  80% confidence

• The European Commission earlier predicted a 0.9% increase for gross domestic product in the euro area for 2025

  80% confidence

• We forecast euro-area GDP growth to remain below trend in the final quarter of 2025 at 0.1%

  80% confidence

• Rodriguez Ceja sees a quarter-point cut to 7% next month as highly likely

  80% confidence

• Germany's Council of Economic Experts has lowered its outlook for expansion in 2026 to below 1%

  80% confidence

Cited in these Via News reports

• ECB Signals More Rate Cuts as Fed Independence Fears Rattle Global Markets →
• Global Rate-Cut Wave Accelerates as Bank of England Odds Hit 84% for March →