Who will replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell? A look at the 5 finalists.
View original at finance.yahoo.comWho will replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell? A look at the 5 finalists. While President Trump has a list of five finalists for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, he said last week that he thinks he knows who he'll pick…
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Waller believes he fits the criteria of merit, experience, and knowing what he's doing for the Fed chair role
80% confidenceTariffs are having a one-off effect on prices and are not a persistent source of inflation; excluding tariffs, inflation is close to the FOMC's 2% goal
80% confidenceTrump said he thinks he already knows his choice for next Fed chair and wants the current chair out immediately but is being held back
80% confidenceBessent would not say no to the president if asked to be Fed chair
80% confidenceThe Fed has made bad and at times partisan policy decisions, and significant housecleaning needs to happen
80% confidenceFinancial markets are underreacting to the likelihood of loss of central bank independence in the United States
80% confidenceThe three leading contenders are not traditional doves on monetary policy, though they have called for rate cuts; all are equally focused on price stability and would risk confrontation with Trump if inflation became a top concern
80% confidenceWarsh has the edge for the Fed chair position, with Hassett as a strong possibility and Waller as a potential compromise candidate
80% confidenceHassett agrees with Trump that rates could be a lot lower and supported a 50 basis point cut in December
80% confidenceThe Fed can and should cut rates in December; labor market presents significant displacement risks over the next couple of years
80% confidenceInflation is caused when the government spends too much and prints too much money, not when the economy grows too fast and workers get paid too much
80% confidenceHassett puts high priority on Fed independence, sound money policies, and getting interest rates aligned with economic conditions
80% confidenceSteve Moore views the race as a three-person contest between Warsh, Hassett, and Bessent, even though Bessent is not officially running
80% confidenceIt would be a mistake to pause cutting rates in December because the government shutdown dented economic growth in Q4
80% confidenceWaller supports cutting interest rates and is more worried about the job market weakening than inflation accelerating
80% confidenceThe two most critical tasks for the next Fed chair are returning inflation to 2% and defending the dollar
80% confidenceExcluding healthcare jobs, job growth during spring and summer months was negative; this is persistent
80% confidencePowell made unwise choices such as missing the persistence of post-pandemic inflation
80% confidenceThe Fed should discard its forecast of stagflation; AI will be a significant force that boosts productivity and pushes down inflation
80% confidenceWhat Trump cares most about in a Fed chair candidate is loyalty to him, which is the worst criterion for a Fed chairman
80% confidenceTariffs should be viewed as one-off price changes
80% confidenceTrump will nominate someone with an inclination toward lower rates, meaning Wall Street can expect a more dovish central bank
80% confidenceBasel III capital requirements plan would significantly harm the economy
80% confidenceBowman favors lower rates due to growing fragility in the job market; penciled in three rate cuts this year
80% confidence