Moody's Mark Zandi says job growth has declined since Trump's tariffs — and warns a recession may be next

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• The economic trend lines do not look good, especially as the fallout from the Iran War hits with full force, and the U.S. economy's resilience is set to be tested.

  60% confidence

• Since Liberation Day, inflation has accelerated.

  60% confidence

• A recession may be next following tariff-driven job growth decline and inflation acceleration.

  60% confidence

• After Liberation Day, the average number of jobs added per month started plummeting; in the past six months, more months saw the total number of jobs shrink than grow.

  60% confidence

• The Federal Reserve targets a 2% inflation rate as part of its dual mandate of high employment and stable prices.

  60% confidence

• Since Liberation Day, job growth has come to a standstill, with only the non-traded healthcare industry adding meaningfully to payrolls.

  60% confidence

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