Another top Fed official resets rate-cut bets

What we drew from this source

The claims Via News extracted from this document. We point to the source; we don't replace it.

• High oil prices driven by the Iran War could dissipate quickly depending on the length of the conflict

  60% confidence

• The Fed's current wait-and-see stance of holding rates steady is appropriate until the true inflationary impact of the Iran War becomes clearer

  60% confidence

• Longer-term monetary tightening may be necessary if supply-shock inflation from the Iran War does not prove transitory

  60% confidence

• Inflation is not moving in the right direction

  60% confidence

• Rate hikes can no longer be ruled out if inflation does not abate soon

  60% confidence

• Waller would not hesitate to support a rate hike if inflation expectations become unanchored, but such action is currently premature

  60% confidence

Cited in these Via News reports

• Fed's 8-4 Rate Vote Sends Shockwaves Through Global Bond Markets as Iran War Keeps Inflation Hot →
• Fed's Waller Puts Rate Hikes Back on the Table as Iran War Stokes Global Inflation →
• Fed's Waller Revives Rate Hike Talk as 30-Year Treasury Hits 5.11%, Triggering Global Bond Selloff →
• Fed's Waller Revives Rate Hike Threat as Iran War Drives Global Inflation Surge →
• Fed's Waller Warns of Rate Hikes as Iran War Inflation Derails Global Cut Cycle →
• Waller Puts Rate Hikes Back on the Table as 30-Year Treasury Yields Reach 5.11% →
• Warsh Inherits $6.7 Trillion Fed Balance Sheet as G7 Watches Global Debt Selloff →