European Fiscal Policy

Geopolitical conflicts have pushed oil above $80 per barrel, triggering gilt market volatility as the UK approaches its Spring Statement. The Triple Lock pension commitment adds £11 billion annually to spending pressures while inflation risks resurface, threatening the eurozone's broader fiscal stability as borrowing costs climb across sovereign debt markets.

UK gilt markets are weakening ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' spring statement as Middle East conflict pushes oil and gas prices up, threatening to reignite inflation. The fiscal pressures coincide with rising unemployment and weakening growth forecasts, limiting the government's room to maneuver on debt reduction targets.